Empty playgrounds
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Wild card disruptors
Similar to the unpredictable rare occurrences that Nicholas Taleb describes as “Black Swans” in his book by the same name, wildcards become an insistent variable with which we must contend.
An unlimited number of downside scenarios exist. Here are five:
1. Economic turmoil
Rapidly aging populations of Japan and most European countries have the potential to destabilize the global economy. Dated immigration policies will become the new political hot potato.
2. War
Most wars today are being fought with far greater precision than in the past, resulting in far fewer collateral deaths among civilians. However, a war among historic adversaries the likes of China, Bangladesh, Indonesia, and India could be devastating for civilian populations.
3. Pandemics
An increasingly mobile society is dangerous to itself. Coupled with a globally dependent food supply, a major bio-disaster with global consequences could ravage the population before authorities have a chance to react. Two worrisome components on radar: the disappearance of the honeybee and an unstoppable wheat virus.
4. Natural Disasters
Hurricanes last year resulted in over 250,000 deaths. Tsunamis, earthquakes, volcanoes, and other natural disasters are all well known. History is far greater than the length of human habitation, and much of that pre-human history has been occasioned by mass extinctions.
5. Unknowns
The unknown may produce the cruelest of consequences for our species, which has only the imaginings of science fiction writers to give us any hint of danger. Disasters by human design is a common theme of science fiction, and soon we will have that capability, born of activities such as bio engineering.
The mask of immigration
The U.S. has the enviable position of being able to turn the immigration spigot on at any time. For a variety of reasons, the U.S. remains the most attractive nation in terms of lifestyle, universities, culture, and opportunities for wealth. A drop in population is fixable.
Not all nations enjoy such luxury, and the legendary status of the U.S. is well known among the less fortunate. A recent Gallup Poll of the world’s 15 to 30-year-olds reveals what may be a distressing feature of the Middle East population. A stunning 59 percent of young men and 84 percent of young women would prefer to live elsewhere.
If the U.S. retains its attractiveness, continued growth can be assured. Unless other nations catch up, regions such as Western Europe, where immigration is limited, will continue losing population and stature. Japan, which faces the prospect of losing a quarter of its population over the next 25 years, makes little allowance for immigrants.
Conclusion
Global population growth rates are continuing to decline with negative growth rates showing up in most developed nations being offset by positive growth rates in undeveloped nations.
A long-term view might wither in the face of a strong anti-illegal immigration movement that has gained traction here in the U.S. But, economic realities eventually will assert themselves.
Proliferation of communication technology on the African continent will bring about improved health, education, earnings and another surprising trends. Competition for human resources will heat up and migration could become problematic.
As health systems improve, we will see greatly expanding age demographics, with rapidly growing numbers in the 70-plus age range. Many will continue to work, but most will opt for less onerous jobs, leaving the physically demanding and highly stressful positions to the young.
With birth rates declining and seniors shifting to less-arduous work, many nations will begin experiencing worrisome talent shortages.
Coupled with the other challenges associated with an aging, shrinking society, the elderly are less inclined to innovate, learn technical skills, or take risks as their younger counterparts. If these tendencies hold, a grayed society will be less equipped to meet the challenges ahead in the coming age of empty playgrounds.
Thomas Frey is the executive director and senior futurist at the DaVinci Institute and currently Google’s top-rated futurist speaker. At the Institute, he has developed original research studies, enabling him to speak on unusual topics, translating trends into unique opportunities.Before launching the DaVinci Institute, Tom spent 15 years at IBM as an engineer and designer where he received over 270 awards, more than any other IBM engineer. Raymond Alvarez is a journalist, microblogger and emerging expert in social media. He is president and owner of Nextwave Communications, which provides cutting edge communication services to the Colorado business community. The Boulder County firm offers research, writing, strategic planning and analysis.
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