Posted 09.02.2010

Flying cars? Just give it 20 years

Frictionless vehicles and binary power will define transportation

By Thomas Frey

Transportation technology is progressing at a much slower pace than some of the other sciences such as information technology, biotech, and nanotechnology. As an example, the world's human speed record was set in 1969, a full 37 years ago, when Thomas Stafford, John Young, and Gene Cernan flew in Apollo 10 at 24,790 mph. While there is much talk about flying at a speed that approaches the speed of light, very little effort is actually being expended in this area.

However, transportation technology is about to move ahead more rapidly in the coming years with the advent of two radically new technologies - frictionless vehicles and binary power.
Throughout history we have learned that the two principle driving forces of humanity are freedom and control. While current automotive technology gives us the freedom to drive as fast or slow as our vehicle will take us, and control over our timing and direction, we are still restricted to driving on the ground and we have a hornet's nest of laws to contend with regarding speed, flow, and operation.

Understanding the "freedom and control" drivers is key to understanding the future of transportation. Any new forms of transportation that do not measurably improve our sense of freedom or give us added control of our lives will likely fail in the marketplace.

In the near future, automotive companies will focus on fully automated vehicles where people can "punch in" or "speak" the place they want to go to and the vehicle will automatically take them there. This "control feature" will open up huge additional markets for automotive companies to sell to the elderly, families with kids too young to drive, and the visually, physically, and mentally impaired. The arrival of fully automated navigation systems for ground-based vehicles will set the stage for fully automated navigation systems for flying vehicles.

Here are a few other transportation landmarks that will help pave the way for the more significant innovations.

• By 2015 traditional gas-powered autos will start to decline with electric automobiles and hybrids taking up most of the slack.
• By 2020 we will see an industry being built up around self-illuminating highways - highways that glow in the dark. "Glow Roads" will dramatically change the night-time aesthetics of major cities and will be shown to improve driving safety at night and reduce the need for streetlights.
• By 2025 a first attempt at launching the space elevator will fail, setting the industry back a decade.

Frictionless Vehicles

Around 2030 we will see commercialization of the first friction-free no-moving-parts flying vehicles which will be considered by many to be the ultimate freedom machine. Much like the transition from analog to digital in the world of information technology, the study of traditional mechanics and traditional aerodynamics will be replaced with a new physics governing vehicular movement.

Even today, flying cars are very much on the radar screen to become a next generation automotive technology. They will begin with a more convenient version of today's airplanes and eventually converting over to the frictionless cars.

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