Thomas Frey //August 5, 2014//
(Editor’s note: This is the second of two parts. Read Part One.)
LAW #2 – As today’s significant accomplishments become more common, mega-accomplishments will take their place.
It is no longer reasonable to assume the same mega-project that have challenged us in the past will be the same size and scale of the mega projects that will be needed to challenge us in the future.
Living in a world where our ever-expanding use of automation and AI is reducing the human contribution in nearly every achievement, we are also witnessing a dilution in the value of past benchmarks.
For this reason, a new generation of mega-accomplishments are beginning to surface.
One example is the Elon Musk – Daryl Oster proposed transportation system, where specially designed capsules are placed into sealed vacuum tubes and shot, much like rockets, to their destination. While high-speed trains are breaking the 300 mph speed barrier, tube transportation has the potential of reaching speeds of 4,000 mph, turning it into a form of “space travel on earth.”
Even though tube travel like this will beat every other form of transportation in terms of speed, power consumption, pollution and safety, the big missing element is its infrastructure, a tube network envisioned to combine well over 100,000 miles of connected links.
While many look at this and see the lack of infrastructure as a huge obstacle, it is just the opposite: One of the biggest opportunities ever.
Constructing the tube network has the potential of becoming the largest infrastructure project the earth has ever seen, with a projected 50-year build-out employing hundreds of millions people along the way.
LAW #3 – As we raise the bar for our achievements, we also reset the norm for our expectations.
When Pixar released the first Toy Story in 1995, it was the first feature film to be produced entirely with computer animation. Naturally it looked a little rough around the edges compared with the new stuff, but it represented a massive breakthrough in the way animated films were produced.
Fifteen years later, in 2010, when Toy Story 3 was released, the Pixar team raised the bar considerably on the quality and detail of the animation. It didn’t take them less time to produce, but instead they dedicated tremendous effort to raising the quality standard.
This raising of standards in quality, value and usability can be seen all around us:
Crazy-Big Projects of the Future
Whether it’s building the Great Pyramids in Egypt, erecting the Great Wall of China, or sending someone to the moon, crazy-big projects have a way of defining our humanity and raising the bar for future generations.
As our capabilities improve, we simply need to set our sights higher and aim for the stars…. literally!
If you’re still struggling with what the mega-projects of the future might be, here are a few to consider:
Final Thoughts
At this point, the “Laws of Exponential Capabilities” are a working theory that I’m hoping to refine over time.
Naturally there are a few downsides to our expanded capabilities. Addictions can become exponentially more addictive. Dangerous people can become exponentially more dangerous. And global conflicts have the potential of becoming exponentially more disastrous.
With all of our increased capabilities, perhaps the one we are lacking the most is our ability to anticipate problems.
That said I‘d love to hear your thoughts What’s missing, what needs to be reworked, and where is this most and least applicable?
We will all be spending the rest of our lives in the future, so we all have a vested interest in understanding it better.