Thomas Frey //January 15, 2013//
There is great value in the unknown.
My good friend Jeff Samson put it this way. “If I am ignorant of something and it is suddenly presented to me, I may find it innovative. The other option is that I will be annoyed by it, but eventually when enough others have accepted it, I will buy in and consider it innovative. So ignorance is as important to innovation as knowledge!”
Ignorance is also a valuable part of the future. Once a future is known, we quickly lose interest. For this reason, our greatest motivations in life come from NOT knowing the future.
So why, as a futurist, do I spend so much time thinking about the future?
Very simply, since no one has a totally clear vision of what lies ahead, we are all left with degrees of accuracy. Anyone with a higher degree of accuracy, even by only a few percentage points, can offer a significant competitive advantage.
Using this as a backdrop, here are four unexpected macro trends that I see dramatically influencing our future.
1.) The Shift to Natural Gas Vehicles
Every year we hear the predictions about changes in the energy landscape, but we are finally seeing hard evidence that the shift has already begun, but in far different ways than most have predicted.
Here are a few recent headlines:
The last headline talks about a topic I’ve been following closely for the past year.
With the recent boom in natural gas production, Shell is taking the lead on creating an infrastructure to offer a natural gas option at its fueling stations.
It’s important to understand the two different kinds of natural gas – liquid natural gas (LNG) and compressed natural gas (CNG).
LNG is being rolled out at truck stops for long-haul, heavy-duty trucks with the advantage of longer driving ranges while not impacting tractor weight and other incremental costs.
CNG is primarily used in cars, buses and smaller trucks.
Here are some of the key trends driving this change:
A Note About Phill – In 2004, Toronto-based Fuelmaker worked with Honda to develop a CNG refueling station for the home. The product they developed was called “Phill,” a small compressor appliance mounted on a garage wall that would enable someone to refuel overnight. It was priced around $4,500.
However, Honda pulled the plug on this venture in 2009 and the company was sold to Fuel Systems Solutions. New efforts in this space by Eaton and GE will force a dramatically lower price point.
Hurricane Sandy showed us how unreliable our current systems can become in the event of a natural disaster. We now know that we have too many choke points and natural gas cars and generators that can be refueled at home will dramatically change that equation.
The transition, however, will be slow because we’re dealing with the physical world. Building momentum will take time, but this train is already rolling.
2.) The Great Insourcing Movement – The Pendulum Swings Back Again
In the 1970s and 1980s strikes by union members were a commonplace occurrence. Fights between management and workers were very contentious, causing business owners to plot out ways to circumvent union influence.
As companies grew more multinational in scope, it became an easy decision to move factories overseas. Dramatically lower salaries, increasingly competent workforces, and the elimination of in-house labor issues made it relatively painless to send jobs to other countries.
But those days are quickly coming to an end. A recent article by Charles Fishman in The Atlantic titled “The Insourcing Boom” identifies some of the key changes that are driving many companies to rethink their outsourcing strategies.
Here are some of reasons why “insourcing” will become the next macro trend in business: