Thomas Frey //July 9, 2012//
Every time I drive to the office, there are 11 separate stoplights along my route. Based on some cosmic luck-of-the-draw, two-thirds of the stoplights will either be red or green, and the time it takes me will vary from 12 to 22 minutes.
Yes, it’s a relatively short commute. But the countless hours spent every year sitting mindlessly at ill-timed stoplights represents a tremendous expense of time, fuel and resources that not only I, but also the majority of workers in America bear, all because of one tiny piece of ancient infrastructure – the dumb stoplight.
Indeed, many communities are beginning to shift to intelligent traffic systems that constantly adjust patterns to better match the flow of cars. But this long overdue transition is happening at great expense to cities, an expense that cities themselves derive very little direct benefit from.
In this one teeny example, we can begin to see the challenges ahead for dealing with infrastructure. Not only is it expensive to maintain and upgrade what we have, but more importantly, it blinds us to what comes next.
For this reason, I’d like to take you along on a journey into the complex world of future infrastructure, and the curse of every legacy system that accompanies it.
Philosophy of Infrastructure
There is a long-held belief that infrastructure, in general, represents a long-term societal investment, that will move us along the path of building a more efficient, better functioning, society. And usually it does…for a while.
However, infrastructure comes in many forms and as we build our elaborate networks of pipes, wires, roads, bridges, tunnels, buildings, and waterways, we become very focused on the here and now, with little thought as to whether there might be a better way
Infrastructure creates its own inertia. As soon as its in place we suddenly stop thinking about what comes next.
Our life is based on stories of the here-and-now. Once stories are told, it becomes hard to un-tell them.
Sacred Cow Syndrome
In many respects, infrastructure becomes a lasting testament to who we are as a society, and part of the cultural moorings we use to guide our existence.
People become emotionally invested in them because they create stability, usefulness, and purpose. But more importantly, people become financially invested in them and their livelihood depends on their ongoing existence.
Virtually every piece of infrastructure creates jobs, revenues streams, and investment opportunities, as well as new laws, regulations, and industry standards.
The longer a piece of infrastructure is in place, the greater the resistance there is to replacing it. Much like an aging tree, the root system that feeds it becomes enormous.
Every community has its own form of sacred cows, and infrastructure is often one of the most entrenched.
Life Cycles are Getting Shorter
Whenever a new piece of infrastructure is put into place, the clock starts ticking. The corrosiveness of nature, structural deterioration, and functional obsolescence all begin to rear their ugly head. It’s useful life may be measured in decades or in centuries, but all forms of infrastructure will eventually wear out.
For virtually all forms, the life cycles are getting shorter.
On the long end of the spectrum, many of the hydroelectric dams in the U.S. were built in the 50s and 60s. But with modifications and upkeep, these dams still have many useful decades ahead of them.
Lasting considerably less time, the usable life of shopping centers is around 10 years before major renovation, and often less than 20 years before they’re torn down completely. Similarly, experts are now viewing the usable life of large stadiums shortening from 50 years to somewhere around 20 years.
Eight Stages of the Curse
As with most of the cycles we deal with in life, there are well-defined stages that infrastructure goes through during its existence.