The Futurist anticipates the burgeoning industries that could boom in the decades ahead
Thomas Frey //January 28, 2018//
The Futurist anticipates the burgeoning industries that could boom in the decades ahead
Thomas Frey //January 28, 2018//
Every major industry today started small. From steel to photography, oil, airlines, electricity, automobiles, pharmaceuticals and search engines all worked their way into existence from humble beginnings.
Many of the oldest, such as steel, automotive and pharmaceuticals took centuries to grow into the global behemoths they are today. But those created with digital technologies, like search engines and smart phones sprang to life in only a few years.
Countless businesses are already feeling the first waves of disruption as industry veterans are hoping to navigate the turbulent waters ahead. As always, it is much easier to visualize what goes away than what comes next.
In his 2006 book, “Long Tail,” author Chris Anderson said:
“When the tools of production are available to everyone, everyone becomes a producer.”
While much of Anderson’s thinking was focused on 3D printing and flying drones, virtually every emerging technology offers an innovative playground for makers, inventors and startup junkies.
Over the coming two decades we will witness an unprecedented wave of innovation and creativity driven by new tools of production. During this time we will see an explosion of more than 100,000 new micro industries that will employ hundreds of millions of people.
As example, the global market for shoes is $21 billion annually. Within five years, 5 percent of these will fall into the category of smart shoes. That means in just a few years we will be producing more than 1 billion smart shoes every year.
During that same time we’ll begin seeing a new era of industrial grade scanners, 3D printers, thousands of new printable materials and an equal number of new sensors and data collection devices.
This means virtually anyone with a passion for shoes could launch their own micro footwear business. Even carving out a tiny nichem selling 2,500 smart shoes a year at $200 each, is enough to launch a sustainable half-million-dollar micro industry.
In the shoe industry alone, 10,000 startups selling 2,500 shoes a year will only amount to 25 million shoes in a $21 billion shoe marketplace. That’s little more than a rounding error for the current industry.
The smartest of smart shoes will even come to you when you call them by name.
Since it will soon become easy to summon a driverless car, it will no longer be necessary to own one, leaving the garage empty. An empty garage tends to be a magnet for all the junk that accumulates over time, but it also represents an opportunity to become something else. This will lead to a number of possible micro industries.
One option is to remodel two- and three-car garages into airbnb rentals. Another option is to work with Marriott, Hyatt or Wyndham and create a branded rental as part of a distributed city experience.
An empty garage can also be rented as a startup space or creative area for painters, sculptors, inventors and musicians.
The following examples are intended to give you a creative launchpad for how to think about these emerging micro industries.
Every micro industry will be defined by a few key startups that demonstrate a functional business model and prove a specific market segment.
DRIVERLESS TECHNOLOGY
FLYING DRONES
As we move past the hobbyist era of drones, we will witness an eruption of startups that will serve as the anchors for trailblazing new industries.
GROUND-BASED DRONES
Most people overlook the possibilities for the less sexy ground-based drones.
DRONE COMMAND CENTERS
As the drone industry matures, many organizations will transition from one-off drones to fleets of drones. These will require their own command centers to manage the duties and tasks of these machines.
SENSOR TECHNOLOGY
Sensors give us insight into the overall quality of the environments around us.
3D PRINTING
Over the coming decades we will find tens of thousands of ways to make micro improvements in all the materials, scanning and printing processes associated with 3D printing.
CONTOUR CRAFTING
Large-scale 3D printing used in the construction industry is called contour crafting.
CRYPTOCURRENCY
Everything we do with money today will be reinvented in the emerging cryptocurrency era.
VR-AR MIXED REALITY
The immersive and semi-immersive forms of engagement that takes place in mixed reality will begin to uncover thousands of seemingly little applications over the coming decades.
ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE
If we think of AI as a talent-enhancing tool, we can begin to imagine entire new industries surrounding the creative arts.
BLOCKCHAIN
Most people have heard of blockchain in tandem with Bitcoin’s rise as the flagship of cryptocurrencies. However, blockchain is more than just bitcoin, it's a method of tracking transactions using technology that could prove to be revolutionary.
Micro industries will range from manufacturing products, to collecting data, designing systems, advising, coaching, monitoring, building, disassembling, and reinventing business in unique and different ways.
With the help of thousands of collaborators, micro industries will spring to life around niches far too small for existing industries to care about. But is in these miniscule advances that great opportunities take root.
A simple coffee mug can be redesigned in thousands of different ways. The same holds true for every toothbrush, piece of clothing, ink pen, lamp, chair, and hundreds of other frequently bought consumer products.
We are entering an unusually creative period of human history. Those who embrace change on a massive scale will be best equipped to flourish during the coming decades.