Are We Entering a Period of Greater Volatility?

Local and national monthly indicators from The Economist

The economy is worth watching more closely in 2018. Early signs show growing volatility in President Donald Trump’s second year as:

1. We move toward mid-term elections

2. The President pursues a “fair trade” agenda

3. The Federal Reserve hikes interest rates

 4. The fiscal reality of borrowing to cover the federal tax cuts sinks in.    

While online advertised jobs have declined (Conference Board), the number of job openings are at an all-time high nationally (BLS). 

The discrepancy is curious.

Perhaps an aberration, but worth watching.  Both data series are seasonally adjusted. 

The Census Bureau’s recent report of a slowing rate of population growth in Colorado is not surprising given the economy was so hot (leading most states) for much of this decade. The market could be self-correcting slightly in a very desirable location.

Stronger growth appears to be shifting more to Colorado Springs, Greeley and Fort Collins. A great indicator in recent years is the ratio of employment growth to population growth throughout the state.  Last year it was approximately .90 as compared to a longer- term average closer to .75 and a ratio below .30 from 2001 to 2008 when high tech manufacturing exited the state.   

Categories: Economy/Politics