Recent Articles from Bill Greiner
Reading the technical tea leaves
What a rally! The equity markets, and most risk markets, have advanced sharply from the lows of autumn 2011. The market closed on Feb. 17 at 1,261.23, up more than 20 percent from the lows witnessed last October. We had believed the S&P 500 was probably going to test the 1,258 to 1,370 range, as […]
Outlook 2012: Part 2
The majority of the world’s Leading Economic Indicator (LEI) indexes are not pointing towards a recession. Of the 29 countries within the OECD (Organization for Economic Co-Operation and Development), 12 are currently showing LEI levels of 100 or better, indicating (expansion). Importantly, one non-OECD country that is showing expansion is China. In fact, the world’s […]
Economic crystal ball: 2012
In general, we expect the world to be fighting a rising tide of economic challenges as 2012 unfolds. Many believe dysfunctional governments are becoming the norm on a worldwide scale. We don’t agree with this stance, but believe many are currently focusing on the symptoms of the financial services and banking structure disease, rather than […]
Reassessing a recession reoccurrence
The August employment report was issued earlier this month, and for the first time since 1945, the number of net new jobs created by the U.S. economy was zero. The U.S. economy has either created or shed jobs every month since 1945. This is a weak report, plain and simple. There is no hiding from […]
Recession or not?
It seems a race is on between analysts as to how rapidly GDP estimates can be brought down, and the playing out of the guessing game–Recession or No Recession. As we have stated in recent pieces, we currently believe there to be a 35 percent probability that the economy will slip into recession over the […]
Recession of confidence
We recently took the position that the world is probably not going to experience an outright recession over the next few quarters, but the probability of a recession occurring is rising. We assigned a probability of 35 percent that yes, indeed, the world would slip into a recession sometime in the next few quarters. According […]
The long, hard slog
We have long written on our outlook for the U.S. economy and markets, and will continue to do so. We launched our formal Global Equity product in the fourth quarter of 2008 (good timing!). Since then, we have focused not only on the U.S. outlook but also leveraging our considerable expertise in the foreign markets […]
So—sell in May and go away?
The world is full of generalizations. And because they are generalizations, they are not truisms. One generalization which originates from Wall Street is “Sell in May and Go Away.” Historically, there is some truth to this generalization. Will it be the same this year? The old Wall Street saw of “Sell in May and Go […]
Economic uncertainty on a global scale
Two issues have led to the economic contraction we faced a couple of years ago, and still have not been resolved. These two forces are: A change in the growth profile of the world’s economic powers. During the last 15 years, the world’s economic growth leadership has shifted from countries which border the Atlantic Ocean […]
A rare secular bear (market)
Bull or bear market? On a long-term, secular basis, we are of the opinion that the U.S. has been e experiencing a primary, secular “bear” stock market environment since the year 2000. Primary bear markets are vicious animals which consume wealth over a long period of time. Wealth is destroyed in various forms (real estate, […]
A peek into an economic crystal ball
The recession is over. We made that call in the summer of 2009. Now that most agree, we are entering another phase of this economic cycle: the economic expansion phase. With this in mind, we believe the U.S. economy on a “real” basis will grow by 2.9 percent to 3.4 percent during 2011. If correct, […]
Economic news disappoints
The Bureau of Labor Statistics has released the employment reports for the month of November. To cut to the chase, the release was disappointing. During the month of November, the U.S. economy created 39,000 jobs. Additionally, the unemployment rate increased to 9.8 percent from 9.6 percent. The consensus view was calling for 140,000 jobs. Per […]