Inventory surges 28% in Denver in June and mortgage rates drop causing sales to decrease 14%
Glen Weinberg //July 16, 2019//
Inventory surges 28% in Denver in June and mortgage rates drop causing sales to decrease 14%
Glen Weinberg //July 16, 2019//
The Denver metro real estate market has performed a sudden U-turn with inventory up 28%, sold homes down 14% and days on the market up 23%. This is the highest amount of inventory since October 2013. At the same time, prices have help steady while mortgage rates have plummeted. Is this really a “goldilocks” market as characterized by the Denver Association of Realtors? How can prices hold steady while inventory increases?
June is one of the top months for real estate sales both in Denver and nationally. For sales to drop 14.3% in June is a harbinger for the rest of the year. Along with the sales drop, inventory surged over 28%. At the same time prices are flat and down less than 1%.
Both ends of the market are providing warning signs of a bigger shift that is transpiring in the market. The DMAR characterized this scenario as the “goldilocks” market, with prices staying flat enabling buyers to have more. I think there is more going on.
It is surprising that mortgage rates have dropped making housing more affordable (lower mortgage payments), and yet house prices have started to languish. Inventory has picked up in many markets while demand has been tepid at best. This slowdown in real estate is more than just seasonality, something fundamentally has changed in residential real estate causing buyers to be more cautious on a large purchase. Below are two prospective drivers of the appreciation slowdown:
Denver is the primary driver of real estate in Colorado. Whatever happens in Denver eventually flows through to every market in the state.
However, each market reacts a little differently to the Denver market. For example, in the last recession we saw many mountain markets lagged Denver by about 18 months going into the recession and coming out of it.
We are seeing this today: As Denver slows, markets like Breckenridge continue to post records. Unfortunately, this trend will not last. As Denver transitions into a slower, declining market, look for other markets throughout Colorado to follow suit within about an 18-month period.
As inventory continues to increase, prices will have to adjust. Just like in the three little bears the porridge can’t stay “just right” for long. Eventually it will get cold! Denver real estate will continue to cool off the remainder of the year.
I can’t recall a time period where interest rates were at historic lows, the stock market is at historic highs and real estate was languishing. With stocks and rates doing so well, one would think real estate would follow right along, but this is not the case in today’s economy. There is something more going on causing consumers to hesitate on home purchases. Will this hesitation be fleeting, or will it persist? If the current slowdown in housing continues, it will eventually cause consumers to pull back on other items, causing a general slowdown in the economy.
How cold the market gets is the million-dollar question. Fortunately, the Denver metro area has a lot going for it including low unemployment, high desirability, low taxes, etc., which should keep the market from repeating the 2008 cycle. Although the bottom will not drop out, it will be tough to reset expectations on the market after 10 years of huge appreciation.